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Wednesday, 3 July 2024

Thoughts on the General Election after a stroll in the Cairngorms

Coire an t-Sneachda, July 2, 2024

Yesterday I went for a walk in the Cairngorms with @Steve72Outdoors and Mel. The weather was wet and windy and cold – more like November than July. We walked into Coire an t-Sneachda, got blasted by a heavy squall, and then cut up to the Fiacaill a’ Choire Chais and descended the ridge to Coire Cas. 

Rain starting, hoods up. A few minutes later overtrousers on.

I returned home listening to the election news on the radio. The same politicians saying the same things. Thank goodness this interminable campaign is ending. I’m looking forward to election night, hoping to celebrate some of the nastier Tories losing their seats.

Six long weeks after Rishi Sunak stupidly got drenched in the rain announcing the date of the election it finally happens tomorrow. Overall the campaign has been dull and uninspiring, especially from the Labour Party, whose chief aim appears to have been as uncontroversial as possible. “Don’t frighten the horses” is hardly an approach to get the blood racing. The series of disasters from the Tories has provided some entertainment and begs the question of how their campaign could be this hopeless. But mostly it’s been a constant tedious repetition of soundbites and insults.

The most enjoyable part of the campaign has come from commentators and campaigners from outside the political parties – John Crace and Marina Hyde in The Guardian, Jonathan Pie, Matt Green, Feargal Sharkey (John Peel should be living at this hour!), Carol Vorderman and more on social media. Of the politicians Caroline Lucas of the Green Party, who is standing down, and Stephen Flynn of the SNP have talked sense on the crucial topics the big parties wish to avoid – climate change, the environment, the EU. Flynn has been good on immigration too.

The expected Labour victory will be the best result, but only because the alternative is the Conservatives staying in power due to our first past the post system. That Labour could have a huge majority with 40% of the vote is not good. Whilst not perfect the system for electing the Scottish Parliament is far better – to get an overall majority you have to get 50% of the vote. That is fair and sensible.

What do I hope will happen, other than that the Tories lose? The LibDems to become the official opposition – a good opposition is always needed and I doubt the Tories will be able to provide it as they’ll be too busy fighting amongst themselves. I hope the Greens win a few seats. I hope the SNP don’t lose too many. Both will be needed to challenge Labour on important topics and remind them they’re supposed to be left-wing. I hope Reform don’t win any seats, though I expect they’ll pick up a few.

And after the election I hope the Labour government will quickly discover that refusing to rejoin the single market and customs union and eventually to apply to rejoin the EU is stupid and self-defeating. Maybe they’re only saying this to try and attract votes from die-hard Brexiteers and will find a reason to change once they are in power. I really hope so.

Even more I hope the next government takes the climate and nature crises seriously and puts them at the centre of its policies. Time is running out. That these have hardly been an issue in the campaign is shocking and worrying.

How am I voting? SNP. Because in this seat it’s either them or the Conservatives. In England I’d vote for whichever of Labour, LibDem or Green was most likely to beat the Tories, Getting this government out comes first. Then we’ll see what happens.


11 comments:

  1. I agree with much of what you say here. Unfortunately Starmer's comments today seem to rule out making realistic efforts to improve the situation regarding the EU, saying we won't rejoin in his lifetime, and that he sees no case for rejoining the Single Market or Customs Union. Self-defeating, as you say. He seems to have fallen for the Brexiters' delusion that they could cherry-pick all the advantages which membership gave us before, without having to accept any obligations.

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    1. I hope he doesn't mean it! If he does it is very disappointing and his economic plans will fail.

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  2. There is much to applaud here. However, Starmer is just being realistic. Unless I am missing something, there are only two ways to join the single market and customs union, and both are ruled out. The first is full EU membership (impossible without cross-party consensus), the second is EFTA membership. Norway has already stated that they would veto a UK application to join EFTA. It would also turn the UK into a 100% rule taker with no decision-making power, while paying significant budgetary contributions, which would be politically unacceptable in the UK. What some people seem to be hoping for is a Swiss-style relationship, but this has been repeatedly and emphatically ruled out by the EU, which regrets the complex arrangements built up with Switzerland, sees this relationship as a mistake, and is certainly not going to repeat that mistake with a larger economy.

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    1. I think it will be very difficult but I hope that Labour will start with a positive attitude to the EU so a sensible dialogue can begin. Then we can see where this leads.

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    2. Absolutely. It has been an awful, pointless and destructive period. I only hope that in France, where I live, the same kind of ugly, divisive nationalism is not about to rear its head. Fortunately, there is forceful pushback against it. We will see what happens on Sunday.

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  3. You know me too well on this, I still love someone from long ago.... the only thing I guess I hope Labour do but bet they don't is the wild camping thing... other than that God save us and all who live through the next five odd years. I guess time will tell and I'll keep open mind and hope they do ok... Can they do any worse.... I do worry about the tax burden they may put on many. For me Reform is far to right, Greens and Labour too left and the Tories seem to be in the middle right but some say they not right enough... that suit me.. for me. If I was American I have switched from Republican to Democrat... so who knows, much chance of me switching to Labour.. unlikely... Looking forward to our next walk, in meantime take care up there.

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  4. For those of us that cherish the United Kingdom it feels like today will be a significant one in our long history.

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  5. Great to see the back of the Tories and delighted to watch Truss and Duncan Ross (among other 'nasties') lose their seats 😄 It doesn't feel like a 1997 moment but surely, in the words of D:Ream, things can only get better

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    1. Delighted to see the back of so many! As well as Truss and Ross, Shapps and Rees-Mogg in particular. But the list is long!

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  6. I am both pleased and disappointed. The Tories are out yay. But I am disappointed they managed to hang onto that many seats given all the damage they have done which will take many many years to repair.

    Matt

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    1. Yes, I'd like to have seen even more of them go.

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